Fooled by Randomness The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets { Read } ☆ Nassim Nicholas Taleb

10 thoughts on “Fooled by Randomness The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

  1. says:

    Yeah you see I’ve just checked and most of the other reviews of this book do pretty much what I thought they would do They complain about the tone This guy is never going to win an award for modesty and he probably thinks you are stupid and have wasted your life And it gets worse – like that uote from Oscar Wilde that has torme

  2. says:

    Renowned statistician George Box once said “All models are wrong but some are useful” The author of Fooled by Randomness is all over the first part of this statement but apparently doesn’t consider it part of his job as an iconoclast to

  3. says:

    The modern world regards business cycles much as the ancient Egyptians regarded the overflowing of the Nile The phenomenon recurs at intervals it is of great importance to everyone and natural causes of it are not in sigh

  4. says:

    You can't learn anything from this book; it's just a rant The author's message is an incessant din of 'I'm smart They're stupid'trading rooms were populated by peopledevoid of any introspection flat as a pancake p28these scientists de

  5. says:

    I'm not certain if it was this book I read or Black Swan by the same author Importantly I was not convinced by the blurbs or the reviews that

  6. says:

    I love the theses that he has in the book but jesus christ this is horribly writtenI think the powerful ideas could have

  7. says:

    Using his trademark aphoristic bent Friedrich Nietzsche wrote “Arrogance in persons of merit affronts us than arrogance in those without merit merit itself is an affront” I’ve come to realize that some people find Nassim Taleb’s arrogance uite repugnant but personally I find it rather charming I suspect that the sa

  8. says:

    One of my business school professors raved about this book I expected to get an entertaining and informative investment professional's

  9. says:

    Don't Be FooledThe author is a Legend in his Own Mind and he reminds the reader of his brilliance every few pages I'd rather have a waxen image of me stuck repeatedly in my tiny black eyes with voodoo pins than read another book by this man

  10. says:

    This is the first book of INCERTO the most polite the simplest and the best to start I feel like I should read the remaining fourat least for now again and I'd love toNassim uses a great analogy so simple that child can understand and explain a uite complex problem with statistics He also makes some laugh at people that use statistics but

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Free read ↠ eBook, PDF or Kindle ePUB ô Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Fooled by Randomness The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

Избрана от com и “Файненшъл Таймс” за една от най добрите бизнес книги на годината “Надхитрени от случайността” незабавно се превърна в класика и вече е публикувана на 14 езика След като прочетете възхитените отзиви по долу ще осъзнаете че статутът и на светове The modern world regards business cycles much as the ancient Egyptians regarded the overflowing of the Nile The phenomenon recurs at intervals it is of great importance to everyone and natural causes of it are not in sight John Bates Clark 1898 Yeah right Nassim Nicholas Taleb 2001

Summary Fooled by Randomness The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

н бестселър не е случайно събитие“Талеб е главният разколник на Уолстрийт Истината е че ние свързваме готовността да се рискува с абсолютния провал а способността да се възстановяваме от катастрофите – с куража Точно в това грешим И точно в това е урокът на Та I m not certain if it was this book I read or Black Swan by the same author Importantly I was not convinced by the blurbs or the reviews that there is any great significance in which one if any of these two books you may readIt is one of those books with an interesting premise that grows steadily less interesting as you read And as I read I had the growing feeling that the book could have been conveniently summarised in a dozen and a half bullet points with a few anecdotes tacked on for amusement This naturally led me to resent both the time I spent reading it and the author for stretching a good magazine article into book lengthWhat the author has to say is interesting view spoiler at least at first after a few repetitions it starts to get a bit stale hide spoiler

Free read ↠ eBook, PDF or Kindle ePUB ô Nassim Nicholas Taleb

леб и на собственото ни променливо време Куражът и героизмът са в устояването на човешките импулси и в предприемането на целенасочени и болезнени стъпки за да се подготвим за немислимото” Малкълм Гладуел автор на The Tipping Point в своя профил за Талеб в “Ню Йоркър Using his trademark aphoristic bent Friedrich Nietzsche wrote Arrogance in persons of merit affronts us than arrogance in those without merit merit itself is an affront I ve come to realize that some people find Nassim Taleb s arrogance uite repugnant but personally I find it rather charming I suspect that the same people who find Taleb s arrogance off putting are the people who wish they possessed a shred of his erudition Nietzsche was certainly on to something it s hard to avoid being offended by your bettersI think I first read Fooled By Randomness circa 2006 Recently I felt a longing to reread Taleb s first non technical book again Wow what a wise decision that was I actually digested from the rereading than I did from the initial reading and I digested uite a bit from the first reading Both times I focused on reading the book very very slowly Obviously the fact that I spent the time to reread this book is indicative of how valuable I think it isKnown for his great wit the baseball pitcher Vernon Louis Lefty Gomez was fond of saying that I d rather be lucky than good This phrase in essence is one of the central themes of the book Although it sounds like a hackneyed platitude Gomez understood the role of randomness in our lives However due to myriad biases we humans often tend to attribute our successes to our skill and blame bad luck for our failures Is your rich neighbor or your boss really as skilled as she thinks she isParts of the book are also about the hindsight bias and the narrative fallacy We humans are great at fabricating post hoc narratives about our world It s how we understand and misunderstand the world but we must remember not to take our stories too seriously A mistake is not something to be determined after the fact writes Taleb but in the light of the information until that point One of Taleb s favorite philosophers is Karl Popper However Taleb wasn t always enthralled with the man who espoused the beauty of empirical falsification Prior to rediscovering the great philosopher Taleb went through a self identified anti intellectual phase early in his career as a trader He feared becoming a corporate slave with work ethics a term which he interprets to mean inefficient mediocrity Philosophy to me Taleb writes became something rhetorical people did when they had plenty of time on their hands it was an activity reserved for those who were not well versed in uantitative methods and other productive things It was a pastime that should be limited to late hours in bars around the campuses when one had a few drinks and a light schedule provided one forgot the garrulous episode as early as the next day Too much of it can get a man in trouble perhaps turn one into a Marxist ideologue As they say the dose determines the poisonSpeaking of poison another interesting idea that Taleb espouses is that being too attached your beliefs is poisonous As he puts it Loyality to ideas is not a good thing for traders scientists or anyone I like to think about it this way there are times we shouldn t trust experts precisely because they are experts This is because they are no incentives to be brutally critical of your own ideas A scientist or a preacher who has built their career on a certain idea obviously has a lot invested in that idea How likely are they to be critical of their own position when their livelihood depends on it being accepted What if they are putting out pseudo scientific nutritional guidelines that cause harm but help them keep their jobAccording to Popper there are only two types of theories1 Theories that are known to be wrong as they were tested and adeuately rejected he calls them falsified2 Theories that have not yet been known to be wrong not falsified yet but are exposed to be proved wrongIf you accept Popper s epistemology like I also do you can never claim that you know a theory to be true In other words we can only gain knowledge through proving that things are false For instance when I accidentally find myself in a theistic debate people often challenge me to tell them how the universe came into existence When I say I don t know they become infuriated How dare I have the gall to dismiss some of their religion s claims as not true without projecting my own claim to reality Yet that s exactly the point I gain knowledge through knowing what s wrong not through making claims about what I think is rightSo what should we make of Taleb s extreme and obsessive Popperism in a practical sense How does he recommend we apply to it our lives I think it can be summarized in the following passageI speculate in all of my activities on theories that represent some vision of the world but with the following stipulation No rare event should harm me In fact I would like all conceivable rare events to help me My idea of science diverges with that of the people around me walking around calling themselves scientists Science is mere speculation mere formulation of conjectureThe following thought experiment really helped me internalize this message Assume you participate in a gambling game that has 9991000 chance of winning 1 Event A and a 11000 chance of winning 10000 Event B Using some straightforward calculations the expectation of a loss is roughly 9 multiply the probabilities by the outcome for each event and then sum them Which event would you bet on I suspect that most people consider the freuency or probability in their decision but this is totally irrelevant According to Taleb even people like MBAs and economists with some statistical training fail to understand this point The magnitude of the outcome should be the only relevant factor in the decision Think of a trader who focuses on event B sure he is likely to bleed slowly for long periods of time but when the rare event happens the payoff is astronomical compared to the losses Most of us however are schooled in environments that focus on games with symmetrical outcomes eg a coin toss The great psychologist and father of behavioral economics Daniel Kahneman also reminds us that we are loss averse and psychologically struggle with idea of bleeding out small losses for extended periods of time even if there is eventually the opportunity for a huge paydayOnce you realize that life is full of scenarios with asymmetrical payoffs you re thinking if you re anything like me anyway will be permanently altered In fields like say writing the outcomes are asymmetrical In other words there is not a linear relationship with the number of hours spent writing and the amount of income one makes One may spend a long time writing for free and then finally catch a huge book deal For me this is somewhat of a moot point because I d write for free without any other justification other than the fact that it s fun and makes me happy However if all other things were eual and I could also make money doing something I love I would be very happyHere s another piece of practical wisdom that I really enjoyed stay away from people of a competitive nature as they have a tendency to commoditize and reduce the world to categories like how many papers they publish in a given year or how they rank in the league tables These are the same kinds of people who think that their GPA reflects their intelligence Or that the number of hours they spend running on a treadmill reflects their fitness Or that their inherited wealth says something about their genetic fitness Or that their expensive clothes make them beautiful I could continue on and on but I think you get the pointI often hear those around me complaining about how life will be better when they achieve X Alas I m human and guilty of making claims like this on occasion too The trouble is that for most of us anyway we won t really experience long term improvements in our happiness when we achieve X Throughout the book Taleb devotes a fair amount of time alerting readers of what the literature in behavioral economics tells us about our irrational tendencies and biasesFor example there s the social treadmill effect you get rich move to rich neighborhoods then become poor again once you compare yourself to your new peers Then you may work your ass off and get rich again only to repeat the cycle If you want to feel worse about yourself then the best piece of positive advice I know of is to hang around people who are wealthier than you I often try to remind myself that I m living a life that is materially better than 999% of all humans that have ever existed and yet I still have the audacity to claim that I don t have enough sometimes PatheticAt one point in the book Taleb writes I see no special heroism in accumulating money particularly if in addition the person is foolish enough to not even try to derive any tangible benefit from wealth aside from the pleasure of regularly counting the beans In other words money is only valuable if you use it as a tool to extract enjoyment from lifeIf it isn t clear I think he is making reference to the likes of Warren Buffett whom people tend to see as being virtuous simply for the fact that he has been able to accumulate hordes of money What I think many people fail to understand is that there is nothing virtuous about having money just for the sake of having it How someone earned what they have tells you a lot about them than how much they have We generally tend to think that having money signals other traits about a person but I ll remind you that there is a lot of noise in those signals think inheritance Having money doesn t necessarily signal any superior traitsThose who want to make a lot of money are greedy and shouldn t try to deny that motivation Greed however is not necessarily a bad thing As Adam Smith taught us another mans greed can create wealth for society as a whole provided the individual s wealth is ethically obtainedDo cigarette smokers understand probabilities If so how can they rationally understand the ills of cigarettes and yet be foolish enough to smoke them anyway When I go for walks near hospitals I m always surprised by the number of people in scrubs perhaps some of whom are doctors and nurses who I assume are well aware of how harmful cigarettes are but smoke them anyway Apparently intellectually understanding something and being able to put it into practice are two different thingsOne thing Taleb also writes about is the selection bias in blogging and book reviewing The cover of my edition of Fooled By Randomness has an excerpt praising Taleb as one of the hottest thinkers in the world While I certainly agree I couldn t help but smirk after reading that line can you say selection biasAny book that is worth reading twice is worth reading than twice When you love a writer you want to hear his opinion on just about everything See at

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  • Fooled by Randomness The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
  • Nassim Nicholas Taleb
  • Bulgarian
  • 07 July 2017
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About the Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb spent 21 years as a risk taker uantitative trader before becoming a flaneur and researcher in philosophical mathematical and mostly practical problems with probability 
 Taleb is the author of a multivolume essay the Incerto The Black Swan Fooled by Randomness Antifragile and Skin in the Game an investigation of opacity luck uncertainty probability human erro